Connor Bedard was once seen as the consensus next generational talent for the NHL and, just 3 years into his career, now entering his 4th. After missing the first few games with another shoulder injury, most of the hockey world has written him off, saying he will never reach that level. We completely disagree!
The generational hype goes back all the way to his U15 Season; he has full highlight montages at 14 years of age: the incredible shot, the hands, scoring Michigan goals; he has always had it. He played 15 games in his first WHL Season, putting up 28 Points at 15 years old. The moment we really took notice was at the 2021 U18s. Due to COVID and no CHL playoffs, all the best talent was available for Canada. During the finals vs Russia and then appointed rival Matvei Michkov, Bedard would be awarded a penalty shot; he did not score, but on his very next shift he came out and did a Toe-drag in the slot and roofed a backhand, top corner over the goalie’s blocker. Not only was the skill to pull it off jaw-dropping, but the performance in the clutch (like he has shown many times since) and the ability to overcome his mistakes. The next year would be his first full season, where he scored 51 Goals, and 100 Points in 62 Games, on a team that missed the playoffs. That same year, he ended up making the Team Canada World Juniors roster, where he would have 8 points in 7 games, winning the gold medal. Going into his draft-eligible season, the expectations were high, but nobody expected this level of dominance. Despite another year with very limited help, he managed to score 71 Goals, with 143 Points in just 57 Games, becoming the first WHL player to reach 140 Points since 1995, the highest points-per-game average since 1990 with 2.51PPG, and the highest goals-per-game average of any 17-year-old in WHL history, with a 1.25GPG. Despite putting up 20 points in 7 games, the Regina Pats would be knocked out in the 1st round. Also in that season, he would represent Team Canada once again; only this time he would continue breaking records. Not only did he win back-to-back gold medals, but he set the all-time record for goals with 17 and points with 36 by a Canadian at the World Juniors. He also broke Jaromir Jagr’s record for most points in a single World Juniors by an under-19 player, with 23 points in just 7 games. He had one of the most dominant draft-eligible years in modern hockey history, other than the obvious Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux; the only ones being comparable whatsoever are Sidney Crosby’s draft-eligible year and Connor McDavid’s, all generational talents. That’s some pretty good company to be in.
First overall picks in any sport, they usually enter situations that are not ideal, but for Bedard it was worse than most. The thing is, at least for most of these players, the roster, more specifically, their linemates improved drastically over 3 seasons. For Connor, he is finally seeing some type of improvement in year 4. To give some perspective in the first 3 years of their careers, Connor McDavid and Macklin Celebrini both had similar expectations as Bedard, and some of their most common linemates included Benoit Pouliot, Jordan Eberle, Patrick Maroon, and Leon Draisaitl for McDavid and Tyler Toffoli, William Eklund, Colin Graf, and Will Smith for Celebrini. Many of those players have prior or future All-Star Talent. Bedard’s most common linemates in 3 seasons include the likes of Nick Foligno, Philip Kurashev, Ryan Donato, Ilya Mikheyev, Andre Burakovsky, and Ryan Greene. No disrespect to any of Bedard’s linemates, but there’s a clear discrepancy. Good News for Bedard: two new additions to the Blackhawks lineup have made their way on his wings as the Hawks’ projected first line. Roman Kantserov, a fellow 2023 draftee who led the KHL in goals last season and a Franchise Icon who won 3 Stanley Cups with the Dynasty Hawks in the 2010’s Adding a Hart and Art Ross in his first stint with Chicago. Patrick Kane, who has 3 straight seasons of being on pace for nearly 70 points for the Detroit Red Wings. These linemates alone should improve Connor’s as well as the entire team’s production.
To have a better understanding of Bedard’s situation, let’s take a deeper look into the advanced statistics to help paint a clearer picture of his true individual impact on this team. Before his midseason shoulder injury last year, Bedard was putting together a monstrous season, with 19 goals, 25 assists for 44 points in his first 28 games, including leading the entire league at one point, with 22 points in 15 games. He was so dominant in that span that the Blackhawks were sitting 4th in a very strong Central Division, with a 13-11-6 record, playing some of their best, most competitive hockey in years. Now, getting into the stats that aren’t mentioned often, Bedard doesn’t try to do everything himself; he creates opportunities for others as well. The Hawks have a 47% high danger chance share rate when Bedard is on the ice; without him, the team’s percentage sits just under 35%, meaning his presence on the ice has a major impact on the team’s offensive success. Tying into that, let’s look at the Goals For rate and see if it doesn’t just affect the chances, but also the scoring ability. The team’s average with Connor Bedard in the last 3 seasons is 2.64 GF/game; without him, the Hawks average falls to 2.26 GF/game, which is a massive difference in the NHL. To prove that, their average with him would currently put them 22nd in the NHL; their average without him would put the Blackhawks at 27th in the league.
What makes Bedard such a special talent? Everyone knows about the shot, and we’ll dive into that, but what else does he have in his “Bag”? Bedard’s passing and vision add dimension to his game. He is able to thread the puck through skates and sticks to feed his linemates when no one expects it. His most improved attribute over his time in the NHL is his speed. Rather than having his zone entry be slow and easy to defend, making him have to defer at the blue line, he now uses his blazing speed to enter the zone and makes defenders back off, giving him more room to do his work. For his otherworldly shot, Bedard’s release is super deceptive; the way he changes the angle just using the blade of his stick. None of those elite traits would mean much without his Hockey IQ. Not only does it let him see and find open areas for himself and his teammates, it also allows him to use that incredible shot at just the right moments. He is super difficult to predict because he has so many tools at his disposal. As for what we believe Bedard can become, we still think he is a generational player and will be a top-3 player very soon and possibly the best player in the world in his prime. For this season, we project 47 goals, 55 assists and 102 points.
It’s easy to believe in a player when everything is going right, but despite the injuries and the talent around him, we haven’t changed our minds on the player he is now, and especially not the player we think he will be. We haven’t forgotten what makes Bedard special: the talent that made him one of the most anticipated prospects hockey has ever seen, the shot that can change a game in an instant, the vision and creativity to find plays that others don’t see, or the offensive instincts that can’t be taught; those abilities haven’t just disappeared. There are a growing number of people writing him off, reasons ranging from overreacting to unfortunate injury luck to seeing other young talents succeed; we know what Bedard has shown, the talent is there, and we are not ready to give up on him because of early adversity.